Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Rasmussen: New Hampshire Poll

As we predicted, the state polls are beginning to tighten.

New Hampshire Primary: Romney 25% Giuliani 22% Thompson 19%

Expect the same in Iowa, possibly even a lead change.

More bad news for Mitt, latest from Gallup:

Date/wk 9/18 9/10
Giuliani 30 34
Thompson 22 22
McCain 18 15
Romney 7 10
Gingrich - -
No opinion 8 11

Romney's RCP national average is now less than 10% for the first time since early August.

For those who would question the veracity of the Rasmussen numbers, Elephant Biz has a terrific analysis:

Rasmussen's recent polls have had Thompson up by seven to 10 points, while other recent polls have Thompson second to or virtually tied with Rudy Giuliani. Jim Geraghty at National Review's blog "The Corner" decided to ask Scott Rasmussen to explain. The short answer: As a poll respondent pool gets more selective, Thompson’s support grows.

"Every poll has seen Fred Thompson gaining ground, so that’s a common point among all the polls,” Rasmussen said. “We are only group that’s doing any kind of a screen to determine who is likely to vote in a primary. It’s not just on all adults, not just on registered voters. When you include people not following the race closely, the candidate with the biggest name ID is going to win out. The tighter you draw the screen on your pool of respondents, the better Thompson performs.”

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