Democratic Party ID Drops in 2010, Tying 22-Year Low

"Independents increasing affinity for the GOP" is what's truely significant.

PRINCETON, NJ -- In 2010, 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, down five percentage points from just two years ago and tied for the lowest annual average Gallup has measured in the last 22 years. While Democrats still outnumber Republicans by two points, the percentage identifying as independents increased to 38%, on the high end of what Gallup has measured in the last two decades. These results are based on aggregated data from 21 separate Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in 2010, encompassing more than 25,000 interviews with U.S. adults. Gallup has computed annual averages for party identification since 1988, when it began conducting most of its polls by telephone.

The Gallup Daily tracking poll, initiated in 2008, shows similar party identification figures for 2010 -- 32% Democratic, 28% Republican, and 37% independent. The tracking data also show the same trend toward declining Democratic identification coupled with greater increases among independents than Republicans.

While there is usually some year-to-year variation in party identification at the aggregate level, the changes are typically not large. Thus, the five-point drop in Democratic identification over the past two years, from the party's 22-year high of 36% (tying the 1988 figure) to its 22-year low of 31%, is notable.