ELECTION DAY 2006

FWIW rain over ~ 60% of contested areas.

Update: I have decreed that Mrs Traderrob is to turn off ALL TV sets in the house and they shall remain off for the duration. The election news I report will be exclusively from the net and radio as I refuse to try and filter through the static of the nattering nimrods.

Update II: Just voted Illinois 19th District, 55 deg. drizzle. Light turnout only 3 there when arrived, none when I left. Not alot contested here, only the govs race which really isn't close.

Update III: Many of you remember Obi Wan Kenobi from the 04 elections. He is NRO/ Jim Garaghty's primary source for "insider" election info. You may recall he was one of the first to declare the exit polls garbage.

Obi Wan's late thoughts....

He laid out what he thought were some interesting indicators: Three major polls, all showing the generic ballot lead for the Democrats cut in half.His pollster of choice, Andrew Kohut at Pew (formerly with Gallup), wrote a summary of findings that has a fascinating tone:

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents.
Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats' eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters.

Update IV: Some anecdotal info from Florida....Florida: Everything I Hear Is Good (KLo)
for Negron. People expecting him to pull it off. (Which strikes me as remarkable and all the doing of that great "Punch Foley" campaign.) Also hearing optimism for Katherine Harris ... keeping her House seat.

Update V: From Redstate:

If early indications in Maryland and GOP rumblings can be believed, it looks like the GOP will hold on to the U.S. Senate thanks to the election of Michael Steele to the United States Senate.

Several top Republicans in DC are quietly saying they expect Michael Steele to win and Georgia House District 12 to flip to the GOP.

Update VI: From a MO insider [Rich Lowry]

Again, take with lots of salt: “Heavy turnout in the right places looks like. 23-25,000 vote margin win. Razor thin, I think.”

UpdateVII: From Strata-sphere:

It seems Webb may be in serious trouble as VA turnout is heavy across the state. Webb needs a lopsided turnout in Northern Virginia (or a big lead) to offset the rest of the state. If the turnout is high across the state, the NoVa effect is neutralized. Webb can blame it on all those ‘horny’ women he wrote about.

Update VIII: A reader E-mails:

Just saw Ken Mehlman on CNN. He was very upbeat! Ken is going to spend part of his evening at the WHITE HOUSE with the president. Do ya think he would do that if he thought we were going to lose the House? I don't! He also said he would be making the rounds on the Cable Stations tonight. He cautioned Wolf that the "Exit Polls" could be way off AS they were in previous elections. He also said they have received the numbers from the Absentee Ballots and they are VERY, VERY GOOD for Republicans.

UpdateIX: Latest from Garaghty....Every indicator I have says the GOP base turned out. Whether that's enough to hold the House isnt clear; it ought to mean some good news in the Senate races. We're going to see what happens when the GOP base turns out in a tough year; if nothing else, the Republicans have pretty much shot the 40-50-60 seat gain talk all to hell.

Turnout in Virginia is way up; but they didn't have a very contested race in 2004, they did this year. Some precincts were at 80 percent of 2005 shortly after noon. The good news for Allen is that the turnout is as big in Southwest as in the Northern D.C. suburbs.

Update X: Listened to Rove on Hannity and I sensed he was a bit subdued. Don't know if I misinterpreted cautious optimism for concern but it left me with a queasy feeling.

UpdateXI: Malkins got the exits. You ain't gonna like it.

UpdateXII: Garaghty reporting that Exits are botched again, anything within 7 points is likely a dead heat.

Sorry folks, blogger went down early last evening and didn't recover untill this morn. Oh well, wasn't an enjoyable night to be reporting anywho.