Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Be Careful What You Wish For
Who would easier to beat in the general Obama or Hillary? A perplexing question indeed especially now that it appears Obama has some serious momentum. Let's tick down the pros and cons of each.
First Obama has the charisma. Someone said this earlier in the week and it's true ..."Obama sounds better saying nothing than any politician in the field", a prerequisite for any successful candidate. Looking and sounding good is 70% of the battle when running for any office especially the Presidency.
Secondly, he is a minority and when you're a Democrat that's worth 15 pecentage points in and of itself. If you doubt it ask yourself, would he be a serious contender if he was not?
Thirdly, he's anti-establishment. Obama is riding the wave of a "change mentality". Hillary is considered the old guard, her support is coming from institutional Democrats whereas Obama is being bolstered by the perceived outsiders. Remember, one Oprah endorsement is worth a hundred Ted Kennedy's at this point in time.
Fourthly, the Press loves him.
Lastly, he's not Hillary. Aside from the fact that Hillary Clinton's negatives are higher than any serious contender for the Presidency in history she is associated with Bill Clinton. If you think that Clinton fatigue is not alive and well in the minds of the electorate., take a look at the crowds Bill has been drawing lately.
Hillary on the other hand is far from a gimme either. First she is still a powerful money generating machine. The limousine liberals, Hollywood and top eshelon establishment Democrats will no doubt cough up hundreds of millions of dollars to insure her victory over the "vast right wing conspiracy". Like her husband, she's better at fundraising then anyone in the business.
Secondly, she's a women. It's not as strong a motivator for liberals as being a minority but it's a significant advantage when wishes to spur an ambivalent electorate to get to the polls.
Thirdly, much of Obama's support is coming from younger voters whereas Hillary garners advocacy from the rank and file. In a general election the younger voters tend to be a good deal less dependable then the rank and file.
Fourthly, the Press doesn't particularly like her.
Lastly, Hillary, deserving or not, is perceived as the more experienced candidate. Her eight years in the White House and few more years [than Obama] in the Senate will be construed by her proponents as ample preparation for the Presidency. Obama's complete lack of ANY significant experience will prove an easy target for any Republican running against him.
So there you have it, which would prove to be the easier to defeat? My personal opinion is Hillary. Her very high negatives show her to be unlikable and regardless of how wonderful your policies, people will not vote for someone they don't like. Obama on ther other hand is eminently likeable, even his opponents admit this.
Style over substance has become increasingly important in Presidential politics, on the Republican side Fred Thompson is a perfect example of this. If this were not true it would be a two man race between Romney and Thompson for the nomination.
Three months ago I was salivating over the possiblity that Obama could give the Beast a very hard time, maybe even slay her. Well, now that this has become a distinct possiblity I'm beginning to wonder if my wish coming true is such a good thing.
First Obama has the charisma. Someone said this earlier in the week and it's true ..."Obama sounds better saying nothing than any politician in the field", a prerequisite for any successful candidate. Looking and sounding good is 70% of the battle when running for any office especially the Presidency.
Secondly, he is a minority and when you're a Democrat that's worth 15 pecentage points in and of itself. If you doubt it ask yourself, would he be a serious contender if he was not?
Thirdly, he's anti-establishment. Obama is riding the wave of a "change mentality". Hillary is considered the old guard, her support is coming from institutional Democrats whereas Obama is being bolstered by the perceived outsiders. Remember, one Oprah endorsement is worth a hundred Ted Kennedy's at this point in time.
Fourthly, the Press loves him.
Lastly, he's not Hillary. Aside from the fact that Hillary Clinton's negatives are higher than any serious contender for the Presidency in history she is associated with Bill Clinton. If you think that Clinton fatigue is not alive and well in the minds of the electorate., take a look at the crowds Bill has been drawing lately.
Hillary on the other hand is far from a gimme either. First she is still a powerful money generating machine. The limousine liberals, Hollywood and top eshelon establishment Democrats will no doubt cough up hundreds of millions of dollars to insure her victory over the "vast right wing conspiracy". Like her husband, she's better at fundraising then anyone in the business.
Secondly, she's a women. It's not as strong a motivator for liberals as being a minority but it's a significant advantage when wishes to spur an ambivalent electorate to get to the polls.
Thirdly, much of Obama's support is coming from younger voters whereas Hillary garners advocacy from the rank and file. In a general election the younger voters tend to be a good deal less dependable then the rank and file.
Fourthly, the Press doesn't particularly like her.
Lastly, Hillary, deserving or not, is perceived as the more experienced candidate. Her eight years in the White House and few more years [than Obama] in the Senate will be construed by her proponents as ample preparation for the Presidency. Obama's complete lack of ANY significant experience will prove an easy target for any Republican running against him.
So there you have it, which would prove to be the easier to defeat? My personal opinion is Hillary. Her very high negatives show her to be unlikable and regardless of how wonderful your policies, people will not vote for someone they don't like. Obama on ther other hand is eminently likeable, even his opponents admit this.
Style over substance has become increasingly important in Presidential politics, on the Republican side Fred Thompson is a perfect example of this. If this were not true it would be a two man race between Romney and Thompson for the nomination.
Three months ago I was salivating over the possiblity that Obama could give the Beast a very hard time, maybe even slay her. Well, now that this has become a distinct possiblity I'm beginning to wonder if my wish coming true is such a good thing.
New Hampshire Republican Primary-Rasmussen Late
Close as it gets.
The final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the New Hampshire Republican Primary shows John McCain clinging to a statistically insignificant one percentage point lead over Mitt Romney. It’s McCain 32% Romney 31%.
The final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the New Hampshire Republican Primary shows John McCain clinging to a statistically insignificant one percentage point lead over Mitt Romney. It’s McCain 32% Romney 31%.
Monday, January 07, 2008
With Enemies Like This
Hell hath no fury...
Bill Richardson will need all the friends he can get ... if Clinton should win.
Gov. Bill Richardson has denied those pre-Iowa caucus reports that he made an 11th-hour deal to send his supporters to Barack Obama if he failed to reach the 15-percent "viability" threshold in the first round of Democratic caucus votes.
But true or not, someone believes it's true -- longtime Clintonista and fund-raising whiz Terry McAuliffe, who told The New Republic's Michael Crowley on the grimly upbeat flight out of Iowa last week aboard Hillary One.
The usually upbeat McAuliffe's mood darkened when Crowley asked him about Richardson, according to The New Republic (and this excerpt on the Real Clear Politics blog): "The preternaturally jolly McAuliffe is a good man to have spinning for you in a pinch. But his good cheer dimmed when I asked him about Bill Richardson, who appears to have made an 11th-hour deal to throw his supporters to Obama. "How many times did [Clinton] appoint him?" McAuliffe marveled. "Two? U.N. Ambassador and Energy Secretary?" He looked at me, half-glaring, awaiting confirmation. "I don't know," I joked, "but who's counting?" "I am," McAuliffe said firmly"
Bill Richardson will need all the friends he can get ... if Clinton should win.
Gov. Bill Richardson has denied those pre-Iowa caucus reports that he made an 11th-hour deal to send his supporters to Barack Obama if he failed to reach the 15-percent "viability" threshold in the first round of Democratic caucus votes.
But true or not, someone believes it's true -- longtime Clintonista and fund-raising whiz Terry McAuliffe, who told The New Republic's Michael Crowley on the grimly upbeat flight out of Iowa last week aboard Hillary One.
The usually upbeat McAuliffe's mood darkened when Crowley asked him about Richardson, according to The New Republic (and this excerpt on the Real Clear Politics blog): "The preternaturally jolly McAuliffe is a good man to have spinning for you in a pinch. But his good cheer dimmed when I asked him about Bill Richardson, who appears to have made an 11th-hour deal to throw his supporters to Obama. "How many times did [Clinton] appoint him?" McAuliffe marveled. "Two? U.N. Ambassador and Energy Secretary?" He looked at me, half-glaring, awaiting confirmation. "I don't know," I joked, "but who's counting?" "I am," McAuliffe said firmly"
U.S. says Iranian gunboats harassed warships
Poking the tiger....
WASHINGTON - Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats harassed three U.S. Navy warships in the Strait of Hormuz Sunday, in what the U.S. military considers a "significant provocative act."
Military officials told NBC News that two U.S. Navy destroyers and one frigate were heading into the Persian Gulf through the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz when five armed "fast boats" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard approached a high speed, darting in and out of the formation.
At one point a radio message from one of the Iranian boats warned, "You are going to blow up within minutes."
WASHINGTON - Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats harassed three U.S. Navy warships in the Strait of Hormuz Sunday, in what the U.S. military considers a "significant provocative act."
Military officials told NBC News that two U.S. Navy destroyers and one frigate were heading into the Persian Gulf through the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz when five armed "fast boats" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard approached a high speed, darting in and out of the formation.
At one point a radio message from one of the Iranian boats warned, "You are going to blow up within minutes."
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Rasmussen 1/6 Democrats
Dropping like a rock...
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows Barack Obama earning 39% of the vote while Hillary Clinton attracts 27%. The survey was conducted on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. All interviews were conducted after the Iowa caucuses and before last night’s debate.
Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows Barack Obama earning 39% of the vote while Hillary Clinton attracts 27%. The survey was conducted on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. All interviews were conducted after the Iowa caucuses and before last night’s debate.
Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.
Question of the Day
Rick Klein, ABC News:
How could Mitt Romney have let Fred Thompson best him on a debate over healthcare?
How could Mitt Romney have let Fred Thompson best him on a debate over healthcare?
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Republican Debate # 7,385,523
Actually this was a pretty decent debate, some pretty good questions and they mixed it up a bit.
Winners: Fred, Mitt, and Rudy. Less then stellar: Huckleberry, McCain, and Paul.
Winners: Fred, Mitt, and Rudy. Less then stellar: Huckleberry, McCain, and Paul.
Romney's Last Stand
It cannot be overstated just how important a win in New Hampshire is for Mitt Romney. He has gone all in with the so-called early primary strategy and without a win in either Iowa or New Hampshire he's toast.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney by five percentage points. It’s McCain 31% Romney 26%. The survey was conducted Friday night, the night following the Iowa caucuses.
Expect Mitt to go after McCain bare knuckles in the Saturday debate as he knows better than anyone the importance of this win.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney by five percentage points. It’s McCain 31% Romney 26%. The survey was conducted Friday night, the night following the Iowa caucuses.
Expect Mitt to go after McCain bare knuckles in the Saturday debate as he knows better than anyone the importance of this win.
Hillary was booed at NH Democratic Party Dinner
No coronation here...
If the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s 100 Club dinner is any bell weather – Barack Obama will handily win here. When Obama, the dinner’s last speaker, took the stage the crowd surged forward chanting “O-bam-a” and “Fired Up, Ready to Go!” So many people pressed toward the stage that an announcer asked people to “please take their seats for safety concerns.”
By comparison Hillary was twice booed. The first time was when she said she has always and will continue to work for "change for you. The audience, particularly from Obama supporters (they were waving Obama signs) let out a noise that sounded like a thousand people collectively groaning. The second time came a few minutes later when Clinton said: "The there are two big questions for voters in New Hampshire. One is: who will be ready to lead from day one? The second," and here Clinton was forced to pause as boos from the crowd mixed with cheers from her own supporters. "Is who can we nominate who will go the distance against the Republicans?”
Note to author, it's bellwether.
If the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s 100 Club dinner is any bell weather – Barack Obama will handily win here. When Obama, the dinner’s last speaker, took the stage the crowd surged forward chanting “O-bam-a” and “Fired Up, Ready to Go!” So many people pressed toward the stage that an announcer asked people to “please take their seats for safety concerns.”
By comparison Hillary was twice booed. The first time was when she said she has always and will continue to work for "change for you. The audience, particularly from Obama supporters (they were waving Obama signs) let out a noise that sounded like a thousand people collectively groaning. The second time came a few minutes later when Clinton said: "The there are two big questions for voters in New Hampshire. One is: who will be ready to lead from day one? The second," and here Clinton was forced to pause as boos from the crowd mixed with cheers from her own supporters. "Is who can we nominate who will go the distance against the Republicans?”
Note to author, it's bellwether.
Friday, January 04, 2008
Iowa Epilogue
Of the 5 viable Republican candidates that competed in Iowa Thursday night, the worst of them won. Huckabee is a more God more government "Nannydad" who's populist pablum is naive and vacuous. If this man becomes the Republican nominee it will mark a precise 180 degree turn away from Reaganism.
To put it simply Huckabee is the "anti-Reagan" and actually has a great deal more in common with Jimmy Carter than anyone I can think of. With the exception of a few social issues he could easily run as a moderate Democrat and he has the record in Arkansas to back up that bonafides.
Estrich said it on Fox yesterday that Huckabee is the "Democrats dream" and it's true. This man is a guaranteed loser regardless of who the Democrats choose to put up. Other than Paul, he's probably the only other candidate that I would refuse to vote for and that includes Guiliani.
There's still an amazingly long ways to go and I could even picture this thing going to convention without a nominee. If after all is said and done and it does turn out to be Huckabee, God help us all.
To put it simply Huckabee is the "anti-Reagan" and actually has a great deal more in common with Jimmy Carter than anyone I can think of. With the exception of a few social issues he could easily run as a moderate Democrat and he has the record in Arkansas to back up that bonafides.
Estrich said it on Fox yesterday that Huckabee is the "Democrats dream" and it's true. This man is a guaranteed loser regardless of who the Democrats choose to put up. Other than Paul, he's probably the only other candidate that I would refuse to vote for and that includes Guiliani.
There's still an amazingly long ways to go and I could even picture this thing going to convention without a nominee. If after all is said and done and it does turn out to be Huckabee, God help us all.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Huckster Takes Iowa
It's as though none of Huckabees MANY not ready for prime time moments never happened. I guess ignorance truly is bliss. Although we support Thompson here I am sure that most of my readers would agree that Romney is far preferable to Hucklebeery
This hurts Romney bad. Thompson will hang in there but a stronger showing of at least 16% would have been helpful. McCain will be invigorated as will L. Ron Paul.
Hunter will pull out likely backing Thompson for what good it will do.
Best news of the night....Hillary pulls in a skanky third.
This hurts Romney bad. Thompson will hang in there but a stronger showing of at least 16% would have been helpful. McCain will be invigorated as will L. Ron Paul.
Hunter will pull out likely backing Thompson for what good it will do.
Best news of the night....Hillary pulls in a skanky third.
2008 Iowa Caucus
Opinipundit final prediction:
Romney: 26%
Huckabee: 22%
Thompson 18%
McCain 13%
Paul: 8%
Guiliani: 8%
Others: 5%
Romney: 26%
Huckabee: 22%
Thompson 18%
McCain 13%
Paul: 8%
Guiliani: 8%
Others: 5%
Single trader behind oil record
Talk about more money then sense...
The man behind the record rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was a lone trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, market watchers say.
A single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then sold it immediately at a loss, they said.
The New York Mercantile Exchange confirmed that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures.
One floor trader bought 1,000 barrels, the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss.
"He paid $600 for the right to tell his grandchildren that he was the first in the world to buy $100 oil."
The man behind the record rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was a lone trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, market watchers say.
A single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then sold it immediately at a loss, they said.
The New York Mercantile Exchange confirmed that US crude oil futures traded just once in triple figures.
One floor trader bought 1,000 barrels, the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss.
"He paid $600 for the right to tell his grandchildren that he was the first in the world to buy $100 oil."
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Huckabee's Iowa Meltdown
Toast?
So in calling around to figure out what exactly is going on in Iowa, I'm hearing that Huck's stunt yesterday — where he showed an anti-Romney ad at a press conference and then said he wasn't going to show it — was genuine. I hear that broader coordinated efforts to support the anti-Romney ad were also called off at the last minute, after materials were prepared.
But this shows the Huck camp's basic problem. They are a shoestring organization that has struggled to put together a cohesive strategy. Further, Huck's flighty campaign style — as evidenced by the stunt yesterday — does not lend itself to a disciplined campaign. For weeks, I've been hearing that if Iowa was at all close, Romney would probably pull out the victory because his ground organization there was so good.
Other Iowa operatives claim that Huckabee's internal polling weaknesses meant he didn't see his downtrend there until after other campaigns did. So now a few days before the election, Huck's panicked and doesn't know what he's doing — hence yesterday's press conference.
And ealier today: "Governor Huckabee is no conservative"- Rush Limbaugh.
So in calling around to figure out what exactly is going on in Iowa, I'm hearing that Huck's stunt yesterday — where he showed an anti-Romney ad at a press conference and then said he wasn't going to show it — was genuine. I hear that broader coordinated efforts to support the anti-Romney ad were also called off at the last minute, after materials were prepared.
But this shows the Huck camp's basic problem. They are a shoestring organization that has struggled to put together a cohesive strategy. Further, Huck's flighty campaign style — as evidenced by the stunt yesterday — does not lend itself to a disciplined campaign. For weeks, I've been hearing that if Iowa was at all close, Romney would probably pull out the victory because his ground organization there was so good.
Other Iowa operatives claim that Huckabee's internal polling weaknesses meant he didn't see his downtrend there until after other campaigns did. So now a few days before the election, Huck's panicked and doesn't know what he's doing — hence yesterday's press conference.
And ealier today: "Governor Huckabee is no conservative"- Rush Limbaugh.
New Orleans on track to be nation's deadliest city
No Virginia, money was not the answer.
NEW ORLEANS -- The bloodiest city in the country in 2006, reeling from crime in its struggle to recover from Hurricane Katrina, got even worse in 2007.
New Orleans registered 209 homicides last year, a nearly 30 percent increase from the 161 recorded in 2006.
NEW ORLEANS -- The bloodiest city in the country in 2006, reeling from crime in its struggle to recover from Hurricane Katrina, got even worse in 2007.
New Orleans registered 209 homicides last year, a nearly 30 percent increase from the 161 recorded in 2006.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Number of Republicans in U.S. Increases in December to Two-Year High
The general populace is again beginning to remember what it's like with the kids in charge.
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. That’s the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).
At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. That’s down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February.
These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.
Expect the likely voter% to be 3-5% higher yet.
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. That’s the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).
At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. That’s down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February.
These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.
Expect the likely voter% to be 3-5% higher yet.
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