An In Depth Look at Who Votes & Decides GOP Primary

Very interesting...

Rasmussen Reports polling has recently shown Fred Thompson leading the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination while most other polls place Rudy Giuliani in the lead and Thompson in second.

The difference is primarily the result of the fact that Rasmussen screens for Likely Primary Voters while others do not. Understanding this difference leads one to conclude that the conventional wisdom is currently overestimating Giuliani’s strength as a potential nominee.

For example, the latest Gallup Poll of adults shows Rudy Giuliani leading Thompson by eight percentage points, 30% to 22%. That poll also shows John McCain in third place with 18% of the vote, well ahead of Mitt Romney at 7%.

But, of course, we know that all adults don’t show and vote… especially in a party primary. When Gallup considers the results “Among Republicans Who are Extremely Likely to Vote in the Primary/Caucus in Their State,” Giuliani’s lead shrinks to three points, 29% to 26%.

It gets even more interesting when Gallup combines their last four surveys and takes a look at the more informed voters. Gallup says “Indeed, among Republicans who have an opinion of the four leading candidates -- less than half the party base -- the ballot looks very different, with Thompson at 33% support, Giuliani at 26%, Romney at 15%, and McCain at 10%.”

So this basically tells us that the informed portion of the electorate that are likely to vote in the Republican primary are strongly for Thompson.

Also this: Romney's 10,000 TV ads

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Over the past few days, two presidential candidates marked a “first” in their competing bids for the Republican presidential nomination.

For Arizona Sen. John McCain, the weekend marked the first time he took to the airwaves to tout his candidacy with an ad buy in New Hampshire. But it is the milestone former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney just passed that is head shaking.

Romney is the first presidential candidate to run at least 10,000 political ads this election cycle, according to an analysis conducted by TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG, CNN’s consultant on political advertising spending. And there is no White House hopeful in sight to catch up to him anytime soon – unless a candidate immediately opens up the campaign war chest and begins to saturate the airwaves.

So much money, so little to show for it.