The invasion in Iraq was always a gamble in that it gave al Qaeda a cause to fight the "crusaders" in the heart of the Middle East. Osama bin Laden has called the U.S. a "paper tiger" in the past, and predicted the U.S. would shy away from combat in Iraq once the fighting got tough. And the United States came perilously close to a forced withdraw from Iraq at the beginning of 2007, but changed its counterinsurgency strategy and encountered dramatic results.
Evan [Kohlmann] has become convinced of al Qaeda's failure after reading numerous denouncements and criticisms of al Qaeda from formerly allied insurgent groups. In an email communication with Evan several weeks ago, he stated:
Al Qaeda seems to have fallen victim to its own worst impulses in Iraq. Then again, when you resort to gleefully digging up the buried corpses of fellow jihadists in order to make off with their severed heads as war trophies, it might just be time for a serious re-frame...
I poked fun at [Vice President] Cheney for his "last throes" line back two years ago, but if he were to repeat that prediction now about al Qaeda, he might actually be right... The combined impact of "the surge" and "the putsch."
Osama bin Laden seems to agree. In his latest audiotape, not only did he criticize his leaders in Iraq for "negligence" and other misdeeds, he stated that for al Qaeda in Iraq "the darkness has become pitch black."
IA consistently pi$$ed down the back of their core support and in the process self immolated. This spells the end of any significant challenge from then in Iraq and portends the beginning of the end of any significant influence for them in the world.
This of course doesn't mean that they can't or won't cause serious mischief for many years to come, it does however significanty mitigate the possibility of them playing any major role in the instigating of their ultimate goal...WWIII.
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