Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Registered and Likely voter fundamentals point to big Election night for Republicans

This combined with a large disparity in "voter enthusiasm" could spell real trouble for the Democrats.
For the first time in the history of it asking the question, Gallup polling company has found that more registered voters favor the Republicans than the Democrats. Although the difference is just 44/43, this represents an 11 point drop in favorability for the “Democrat brand” since 2008. It is the Democrats worst pre convention rating since 1992.
Moreover, in the years since Barack Obama took office the Party identification of registered voters has shown a steep drop for the Democrats. At their highest level the Democrats surpassed Republicans by an eye popping 53/34. Now Gallup’s survey of those claiming to be “registered voters” shows that gap has all been wiped away. Counting “leaners” it is now just 44/43 in favor of the Democrats.

Since Obama’s election Democrats have fallen 24 points in overall favorability but among Independents Democrats have slide from 47% to 35% and now stand 3 points below Republicans.

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